The Source of Individual Alpha: Cognitive Ability vs. Elite Education in a Retail-Dominated Market

主讲人 Siyu Chen 简介 <p>We examine whether investment performance in a retail-dominated market, the Chinese A-share market, reflects educable financial skill or latent cognitive ability. By linking China's national college entrance examination (CEE/Gaokao) records for the 1999--2003 cohorts to ten years of granular brokerage transaction data (2014-2023), we trace how pre-college cognitive ability and institutional education shape long-run portfolio outcomes. Using regression discontinuity (RD) designs around elite-college and economics-major admission cutoffs, we find no significant effect of institutional prestige or specialized financial training on investor performance. Elite college graduates and economics majors earn nearly identical returns, Sharpe ratios, and risk-adjusted profiles as their near-miss counterparts. In contrast, CEE rank---a robust proxy for cognitive ability---strongly predicts portfolio alpha even after controlling for an extensive set of socioeconomic and demographic fixed effects. A ten-percentile increase in CEE rank is associated with a 0.05 percentage point rise in monthly returns, which compounds into a 61% performance gap between the top and bottom quartiles over a decade. This &ldquo;cognitive alpha&rdquo; is driven by distinct behavioral advantages: high-ability investors demonstrate superior stock selection (favoring high-ROA and low-beta firms), maintain significantly lower turnover rates, and interact with financial advisers more rationally and with less overconfidence. Our findings suggest that in speculative, retail-heavy environments, heterogeneity in wealth accumulation reflects innate cognitive traits rather than the signaling or human capital effects of educational credentials.</p>
时间 2026-11-12 (Thursday) 16:40-18:00 地点 Room N302, Economics Building
讲座语言 English 主办单位 厦门大学经济学院、王亚南经济研究院、邹至庄经济研究院
承办单位 厦门大学经济学院、王亚南经济研究院、邹至庄经济研究院 类型 系列讲座
联系人信息 叶老师,电话2181098,邮箱yhye.wise@xmu.edu.cn 主持人 Xiqian Cai
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主讲人简介 <p>Siyu Chen is a tenured Associate Professor, Ph.D. Supervisor, and Assistant Dean at the Institute for Economic and Social Research, Jinan University. She serves as an Associate Editor of the <em>Journal of Population Economics</em> and is a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization. Her research interests include labor economics, the digital economy, and household finance. Her work has been published in leading academic journals, including the<em> Quarterly Journal of Economics (Editor&rsquo;s Choice), Review of Economics and Statistics, Nature Mental Health, Journal of Environmental Economics</em><em> and Management, Management World,</em> and <em>The</em> <em>Journal of World Economy</em>. Her research has been featured by The<em> Economist, Vox, VoxChina, Stanford Social Innovation Review, Bloomberg</em>, Sina Finance, Phoenix Finance, and other media outlets. She has served as principal investigator for both General and Young Fund projects funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, as well as a General Program funded by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province. Her honors include First Prize in the Guangdong Provincial Teaching Competition for Young Faculty Members at Undergraduate Institutions, Second Prize for Outstanding Teaching Achievements in Guangdong Higher Education, and Jinan University&rsquo;s Award for Outstanding Academic Contributions by Young Scholars.</p> 期数 高级经济学系列讲座2026年秋季学期第四讲(总507讲)
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